1. 导致冲突的途径不止一条;2. 大国威胁并非全部;3. 小国也有可能获胜;4. 信念与现实的调和。

• 非对称冲突的研究在国际关系及安全研究领域异军突起，成为一项极受学界关注的新课题。
• 以数条通向非对称冲突的路线图将以往研究著作中简单化、片面化的冲突理论进行了整合与改进。这一全新的理论框架阐释了小国或非国家政治实体在冲突中决策的潜力，在预测、认识未来非对称冲突走向上具有较高的参考价值。

3，本书在案例分析中放弃了常见的大国视角，主要通过小国的决策视角解读各场冲突的内外成因。这一多样化的研究角度对于非对称冲突的解读更为准确、清晰。

马林科·波维奇是一位塞尔维亚裔加拿大学者，现任教于位于荷兰莱顿大学海牙校区的安全及国际事务学院，主讲国际关系与外交硕士课程。波维奇曾在意大利特伦托大学获得国际关系博士学位，并在莱顿大学获得国际关系及外交硕士学位。

波维奇主攻国家战略、地缘政治、冲突与资源、有组织犯罪以及争议地区等方面的研究，著作包括《俄罗斯的领土争端战略》、《跨国有组织犯罪与恐怖主义》、《意大利黑手党：发展中国家的暴力产业》、《从发展角度再探世界系统分析》、《叛乱、内战与国际支持》以及《情绪可视化：国歌与战争》等学术书籍及论文。此前，波维奇曾任职于多国政府部门及非政府组织，负责实用政策分析、咨询、政策监督以及兵棋推演等工作内容。波维奇能够流利地运用英语、塞尔维亚语、克罗地亚语以及波斯尼亚语进行沟通及写作。

章概论··········································································· 001

本书的内容架构···························································· 019

第二章小国非对称冲突理论概述············································· 021

1. 战争的理性主义解读··················································· 024
2. 非对称冲突理论························································· 028
3. 小国的安全策略························································· 033
4. 小国的作战策略························································· 037
5. 冲突条件列表···························································· 042

第三章运用定性比较分析法（QCA）阐释冲突的发展途径········· 051

1. 非对称冲突分析的操作化············································· 058

1.1 案例选择······························································ 059

1.2 争端结果······························································ 064

1.3 冲突条件······························································ 065

1.4 分配分值······························································

2. 小国选择冲突的途径··················································· 069
3. 讨论······································································· 076

第四章伊拉克：与美国及三十三个盟国的军事冲突···················· 084

1. 海湾危机的传统解读··················································· 085
2. 必要条件：经济危机·················································· 092

2.1 两伊战争意外失利··················································· 092

2.2 经济危机······························································ 094

2.3 政权形象崩溃························································· 101

2.4 库尔德问题··························································· 102

3. 异常信念：INUS 条件················································ 103

3.1 霍布斯主义世界观·············································· 104

3.2 暴力倾向······························································ 105

3.3 自恋主义······························································ 111

3.4 心理异常······························································ 113

3.5 对于美国的错误认识················································· 115

等。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。